China's Foreign Trade Is Moving Toward "new" Growth

On January 15, the Economic Information Daily published an article titled "Explaining China's Economic Answer Sheet" |. China's foreign trade moves toward "new" after a steady end. The article said that the latest foreign trade report shows that the total value of China's imports and exports in 2023 was 41.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2%, better than expected, and achieved the goal of promoting stability and improving quality. Foreign trade is one of the "troika" driving economic growth, as the first annual important economic indicators, foreign trade data has attracted much attention.

Industry insiders said that in the weak recovery of the world economy, the overall performance of global trade is relatively sluggish situation, China's import and export scale has increased steadily, and the quality of development has improved the overall confidence. At the same time, as the economic situation continues to improve and policies continue to strengthen, new growth points such as "new three types", emerging markets, and new business forms will be further cultivated and strengthened, which will accumulate more momentum for the steady improvement of foreign trade quality.

According to customs statistics, China's exports in 2023 will reach 23.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.6%. In response, Wang Lingjun, deputy director of the General Administration of Customs, said that from a numerical point of view, the export growth rate has indeed slowed down compared with previous years. However, it is more important to see that China's exports have reached a new high on a high base, not only achieving a reasonable growth in volume, but also maintaining the overall stability of the share.

According to the latest data of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the international market share of China's exports is expected to remain at a relatively high level of about 14% in 2023.

Zhuang Rui, executive dean of the Institute of International Economics at the University of International Business and Economics, in an interview with a reporter from the Economic Information Daily, used "pushing forward" to summarize the performance of China's foreign trade. She analyzed that in 2023, China's foreign trade overcame many influences and achieved positive growth, and the share of global exports remained at a high level, which is not easy. What is even more difficult is that while the scale is stable and increasing, the structure is continuously optimized.

Looking through the 2023 foreign trade report card, a number of highlights highlight the trend of China's foreign trade development: from the perspective of product structure, in 2023, the total export of "new three" products reached 1.06 trillion yuan, breaking through the trillion yuan mark for the first time, an increase of 29.9%; From the perspective of business, preliminary statistics show that China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports will reach 2.38 trillion yuan in 2023, an increase of 15.6%; From the main body, the number of foreign trade entities with import and export performance reached 645,000, a record high; In 2023, China's imports and exports to countries jointly building the "Belt and Road" reached 19.47 trillion yuan, accounting for 46.6% of the total import and export value, an increase of 1.2 percentage points, and imports and exports to Latin America and Africa increased by 6.8% and 7.1% respectively.

"From this, we can see the resilience and solid foundation of China's foreign trade, behind which the country continues to promote the innovation and development of foreign trade, supports enterprises to explore diversified international markets, cultivate new forms and models, and strengthen the accumulation of new competitive advantages such as new track and new product research and development." Zhuang Rui said.

Oriental Jincheng Research also believes that under the background of weakening external demand, China's export share will remain high in 2023, showing that China's export competitiveness continues to lead the world. The transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector is creating new growth drivers for exports.

"China's new energy vehicles go to sea for rapid growth, in the industrial chain, technology and other aspects have achieved the 'corner overtaking'." At Ali International Station, new energy passenger cars, golf carts, electric motorcycles and electric tricycles have become popular categories, and the growth is continuing." Ali International Station officials told reporters that, for example, the sales of Chinese-made intelligent driving electric vehicles increased by 97% in the past year.

New momentum has become a strong support for China's foreign trade to cope with uncertainties, and has become the focus of policy support. The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2023 proposed that "we should accelerate the cultivation of new growth drivers for foreign trade, consolidate the basic foreign trade and foreign investment, and expand intermediate goods trade, service trade, digital trade, and cross-border e-commerce exports."

Relevant departments have stepped up deployment, including expanding cross-border e-commerce exports, and continuously improving customs clearance, taxation, foreign exchange and other policies; Support cross-border e-commerce pilot areas, industry organizations and enterprises to actively participate in the "Silk Road E-commerce" and jointly build the Belt and Road economic and trade cooperation; Promoting the digitalization and greening of trade has become the deployment direction.

"The Ministry of Commerce will continue to implement the various stable foreign trade policies that have been introduced together with various local departments." At the same time, in light of the new situation and new tasks, we will study and reserve new policies and measures and promote their introduction in a timely manner to help foreign trade enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency." Ministry of Commerce foreign trade Department director Li Xingqian recently said in an interview with the media.

Under the strengthening of the policy and the accumulation of advantages, the confidence of foreign trade enterprises has also been further improved. A recent survey of key import and export enterprises by the Customs showed that more than three quarters of enterprises expect their imports and exports to be flat or grow in 2024.

Oriental Jincheng Research Report pointed out that in 2024, the "new three" exports are still expected to maintain rapid growth, and China's imports and exports in emerging markets such as countries building the "Belt and Road" will further expand. "This means that the product and market structure of China's foreign trade will be further optimized, and the ability to resist external shocks will be enhanced."

Looking to the future, Zhuang Rui believes that the multi-pronged policy to support foreign trade to cultivate new momentum, while the high-level opening up continues to advance, multilateral and bilateral economic and trade cooperation will also usher in a broader space for development. "These will become a strong support for the stable total volume and quality of China's foreign trade in 2024 and even longer." China's foreign trade is expected to achieve higher quality development in the 'new' direction."

(Reporter Wang Wenbo)